The role of social interactions in conservation conflict: goose management across Scotland

Increasing anthropogenic influence has left no corner of the natural world untouched. As the negative impacts of people on the natural world have become more prominent, pro-conservation actions have been incentivised across scales, from individual to societal to intergovernmental. Clashes over conservation objectives, when there is a perception that one party is asserting its interests at the expense of the other, is termed Conservation Conflict, and causes negative outcomes for biodiversity and people. Conservation conflicts are complex problems, the successful management of which can rarely be undertaken unilaterally, for both practical and ethical reasons. Finding the best ways for encouraging social interactions and cooperative behaviours are therefore vital in managing conservation conflict. I take a conservation conflict surrounding the damaging of crops by hyper-abundant flocks of wild geese across Scotland as a case study to explore the roles of social interactions in conservation conflict. In Chapter 2 I start at the network scale by modelling the interactions between individuals and organisations involved in the goose conflict at two locations. I test the networks for the prevalence of particular sets of network configurations which represent individuals forming interactions in response to either a coordination problem (where solutions are sought and implemented efficiently to tackle an agreed goal) or to a cooperation problem (where goals are not shared, and for which solutions must be sought through negotiation). I find that interaction networks in both locations were formed in response to, and have the function to tackle, coordination problems. This is useful for dealing with coordination problems such as the practical management of geese. Interaction networks formed in response to, and having the function to tackle, cooperation problems were less prevalent. This presents a problem when collective problem solving requires negotiation, such as for managing conservation conflict. Networks at both locations would benefit from forming certain types of interactions to strengthen the network for future cooperation problems. To effectively manage conservation conflicts in-depth knowledge of the cooperative behaviours of the people involved is required. In Chapter 3 I use stakeholder interviews, to investigate how and why individual members of three important stakeholder groups (farmers & crofters, conservation managers, and shooters) cooperated with one another and what barriers to cooperation they faced. I identify three dimensions of cooperation in the goose conflict: i) that the lack of horizontal interactions (between actors who interact with others at a similar organisational scale, for example farmers communicating with other farmers or conservation project managers communicating with other conservation project managers) and vertical interactions (between actors across different organisational scales, for example farmers communicating with farming union representatives, or conservation project managers communicating with senior management) linking widely distributed actors meant both shared learning and the perception of fairness suffer. Building up horizontal and vertical interactions could bypass these scientific and political barriers; ii) a false belief in uniformity among stakeholder groups can be the source of poor system understanding, which can be prevented by developing wider or alternative stakeholder representation; and iii) for long-term, complex issues, identification and discussion of trade-offs is needed to avoid poor outcomes throughout the process, not just at the planning stages. Laboratory experiments with volunteers show cooperation is less likely in the presence of uncertainty. Much less is known about how stakeholders in real-life conservation conflicts respond to different types of uncertainty. In Chapter 4, I test the effect of different sources of uncertainty on cooperative behaviour using a framed field experiment and interviews with crofters in Scotland. The experiment compared a baseline scenario of perfect certainty with scenarios including either: i) scientific uncertainty about the effectiveness of a conflict-reduction intervention; ii) administrative uncertainty about intervention funding; or iii) political uncertainty about the extent of community support. I find that crofters’ intention to cooperate is high but lessened by uncertainty, especially over the commitment from other stakeholders to cooperate on goose management. I conclude that existing cooperation on goose management may be at risk if uncertainty isn’t reduced outright or if commitments between parties are not strengthened. To avert this issue researchers and government advisers need to: i) determine how uncertainty will impact intention of stakeholders to cooperate; and ii) take steps (such as uncertainty reduction, communication, or acceptance) to reduce the negative impact of uncertainty on cooperation. In Chapter 5 I use the findings from Chapters 2 to 4 in conjunction with a conservation conflict management tool to evaluate goose conflict management in Scotland. I find many existing structures and processes of goose conflict management in Scotland were successful, but in order to build on these successes I propose several practical interventions. Increasing interactions between disparate groups; building data commons for shared learning; identification, acknowledgement, discussion and inclusion of trade-offs as they emerge; and making commitments to balance and fairness across the system. Enacting these recommendations would give goose conflict management in Scotland greater ability to deliver positive outcomes in what is a highly dynamic issue. This thesis uses mixed methods to investigate the role of social interaction in conservation conflict. The work succeeds in both identifying interventions specific for managing the goose conflict in Scotland and developing the theory of social interactions and cooperation in conservation conflict management more widely

A Subfield Lattice Attack on Overstretched NTRU Assumptions:Cryptanalysis of Some FHE and Graded Encoding Schemes

International audienc

Ice-stream stability on a reverse bed slope

Marine-based ice streams whose beds deepen inland are thought to be inherently unstable. This instability is of particular concern because significant portions of the marine-based West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets are losing mass and their retreat could contribute significantly to future sea-level rise. However, the present understanding of ice-stream stability is limited by observational records that are too short to resolve multi-decadal to millennial-scale behaviour or to validate numerical models8. Here we present a dynamic numerical simulation of Antarctic ice-stream retreat since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), constrained by geophysical data, whose behaviour is consistent with the geomorphological record. We find that retreat of Marguerite Bay Ice Stream following the LGM was highly nonlinear and was interrupted by stabilizations on a reverse-sloping bed, where theory predicts rapid unstable retreat. We demonstrate that these transient stabilizations were caused by enhanced lateral drag as the ice stream narrowed. We conclude that, as well as bed topography, ice-stream width and long-term retreat history are crucial for understanding decadal- to centennial-scale ice-stream behaviour and marine ice-sheet vulnerability

Low back pain status in elite and semi-elite Australian football codes: a cross-sectional survey of football (soccer), Australian rules, rugby league, rugby union and non-athletic controls

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Our understanding of the effects of football code participation on low back pain (LBP) is limited. It is unclear whether LBP is more prevalent in athletic populations or differs between levels of competition. Thus it was the aim of this study to document and compare the prevalence, intensity, quality and frequency of LBP between elite and semi-elite male Australian football code participants and a non-athletic group.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A cross-sectional survey of elite and semi-elite male Australian football code participants and a non-athletic group was performed. Participants completed a self-reported questionnaire incorporating the Quadruple Visual Analogue Scale (QVAS) and McGill Pain Questionnaire (short form) (MPQ-SF), along with additional questions adapted from an Australian epidemiological study. Respondents were 271 elite players (mean age 23.3, range 17–39), 360 semi-elite players (mean age 23.8, range 16–46) and 148 non-athletic controls (mean age 23.9, range 18–39).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Groups were matched for age (p = 0.42) and experienced the same age of first onset LBP (p = 0.40). A significant linear increase in LBP from the non-athletic group, to the semi-elite and elite groups for the QVAS and the MPQ-SF was evident (p < 0.001). Elite subjects were more likely to experience more frequent (daily or weekly OR 1.77, 95% CI 1.29–2.42) and severe LBP (discomforting and greater OR 1.75, 95% CI 1.29–2.38).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Foolers in Australia have significantly more severe and frequent LBP than a non-athletic group and this escalates with level of competition.</p

A Novel Test for Gene-Ancestry Interactions in Genome-Wide Association Data

Genome-wide association study (GWAS) data on a disease are increasingly available from multiple related populations. In this scenario, meta-analyses can improve power to detect homogeneous genetic associations, but if there exist ancestry-specific effects, via interactions on genetic background or with a causal effect that co-varies with genetic background, then these will typically be obscured. To address this issue, we have developed a robust statistical method for detecting susceptibility gene-ancestry interactions in multi-cohort GWAS based on closely-related populations. We use the leading principal components of the empirical genotype matrix to cluster individuals into “ancestry groups” and then look for evidence of heterogeneous genetic associations with disease or other trait across these clusters. Robustness is improved when there are multiple cohorts, as the signal from true gene-ancestry interactions can then be distinguished from gene-collection artefacts by comparing the observed interaction effect sizes in collection groups relative to ancestry groups. When applied to colorectal cancer, we identified a missense polymorphism in iron-absorption gene CYBRD1 that associated with disease in individuals of English, but not Scottish, ancestry. The association replicated in two additional, independently-collected data sets. Our method can be used to detect associations between genetic variants and disease that have been obscured by population genetic heterogeneity. It can be readily extended to the identification of genetic interactions on other covariates such as measured environmental exposures. We envisage our methodology being of particular interest to researchers with existing GWAS data, as ancestry groups can be easily defined and thus tested for interactions

Games as tools to address conservation conflicts

Conservation conflicts represent complex multilayered problems that are challenging to study. We explore the utility of theoretical, experimental, and constructivist approaches to games to help to understand and manage these challenges. We show how these approaches can help to develop theory, understand patterns in conflict, and highlight potentially effective management solutions. The choice of approach should be guided by the research question and by whether the focus is on testing hypotheses, predicting behaviour, or engaging stakeholders. Games provide an exciting opportunity to help to unravel the complexity in conflicts, while researchers need an awareness of the limitations and ethical constraints involved. Given the opportunities, this field will benefit from greater investment and development

Extensive study of HD 25558, a long-period double-lined binary with two SPB components

We carried out an extensive observational study of the Slowly Pulsating B (SPB) star, HD 25558. The ≈2000 spectra obtained at different observatories, the ground-based and MOST satellite light curves revealed that this object is a double-lined spectroscopic binary with an orbital period of about nine years. The observations do not allow the inference of an orbital solution. We determined the physical parameters of the components, and found that both lie within the SPB instability strip. Accordingly, both show line-profile variations due to stellar pulsations. 11 independent frequencies were identified in the data. All the frequencies were attributed to one of the two components based on pixel-by-pixel variability analysis of the line profiles. Spectroscopic and photometric mode identification was also performed for the frequencies of both stars. These results suggest that the inclination and rotation of the two components are rather different. The primary is a slow rotator with ≈6 d period, seen at ≈60° inclination, while the secondary rotates fast with ≈1.2 d period, and is seen at ≈20° inclination. Spectropolarimetric measurements revealed that the secondary component has a magnetic field with at least a few hundred Gauss strength, while no magnetic field can be detected in the primary

The Reality of Pervasive Transcription

Despite recent controversies, the evidence that the majority of the human genome is transcribed into RNA remains strong

Growth and retreat of the last British–Irish Ice Sheet, 31 000 to 15 000 years ago: the BRITICE-CHRONO reconstruction

The BRITICE-CHRONO consortium of researchers undertook a dating programme to constrain the timing of advance, maximum extent and retreat of the British–Irish Ice Sheet between 31 000 and 15 000 years before present. The dating campaign across Ireland and Britain and their continental shelves, and across the North Sea included 1500 days of field investigation yielding 18 000 km of marine geophysical data, 377 cores of sea floor sediments, and geomorphological and stratigraphical information at 121 sites on land; generating 690 new geochronometric ages. These findings are reported in 28 publications including synthesis into eight transect reconstructions. Here we build ice sheet-wide reconstructions consistent with these findings and using retreat patterns and dates for the inter-transect areas. Two reconstructions are presented, a wholly empirical version and a version that combines modelling with the new empirical evidence. Palaeoglaciological maps of ice extent, thickness, velocity, and flow geometry at thousand-year timesteps are presented. The maximum ice volume of 1.8 m sea level equivalent occurred at 23 ka. A larger extent than previously defined is found and widespread advance of ice to the continental shelf break is confirmed during the last glacial. Asynchrony occurred in the timing of maximum extent and onset of retreat, ranging from 30 to 22 ka. The tipping point of deglaciation at 22 ka was triggered by ice stream retreat and saddle collapses. Analysis of retreat rates leads us to accept our hypothesis that the marine-influenced sectors collapsed rapidly. First order controls on ice-sheet demise were glacio-isostatic loading triggering retreat of marine sectors, aided by glaciological instabilities and then climate warming finished off the smaller, terrestrial ice sheet. Overprinted on this signal were second order controls arising from variations in trough topographies and with sector-scale ice geometric readjustments arising from dispositions in the geography of the landscape. These second order controls produced a stepped deglaciation. The retreat of the British–Irish Ice Sheet is now the world’s most well-constrained and a valuable data-rich environment for improving ice-sheet modelling.publishedVersio